Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from December 8, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 8, 2026 — +13.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$288.44 – $293.41Entry zone — fair-value band

$299.24Published — price the day we called it

$352.16Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$390.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$338.89Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 63 days.

At window close

+13.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+30.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-1.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$338.89

last close inside the window, ended March 8, 2026

Peak price

$390.21

peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published December 8, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$352.16

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$288.44 – $293.41

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$299.24

published December 8, 2025

Confidence

77%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC is the main company that makes cutting-edge chips used by AI and high performance computers. Recent industry sales are strong and many analysts set a median price target of 355 dollars, implying about 20 percent upside from today. Because the stock has already risen a lot, pulls back are usually small; we see the next three months as a time to buy on small drops while AI spending remains high.

Primary drivers

Largest maker of advanced chips for AI and fast computers
Analysts' median target near $355 suggests clear upside
Industry sales data show the chip market is growing
Continued AI capital spending supports buying on dips

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 63 days

Lyra published TSM at $299.24 on 2025-12-08 with an 18% expected gain over the short term. The thesis pointed to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing as the largest maker of advanced chips for artificial intelligence and fast computers, a median analyst target near $355, growing chip sales, and continued artificial intelligence capital spending that could support buying on dips.

Inside the window, the stock reached the $352.16 target in 63 days. It later peaked at $390.21 on 2026-02-25, a 30.4% gain from publication. By 2026-03-08, it ended at $338.89. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported fourth-quarter results, with revenue up 20% year over year and net income up more than 35%. On 2026-02-10, TSMC reported January sales growth of 36.8% year over year and 19.8% from December.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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