Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from December 8, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 8, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 63 days.
The thesis — published December 8, 2025
TSMC is the main company that makes cutting-edge chips used by AI and high performance computers. Recent industry sales are strong and many analysts set a median price target of 355 dollars, implying about 20 percent upside from today. Because the stock has already risen a lot, pulls back are usually small; we see the next three months as a time to buy on small drops while AI spending remains high.
Primary drivers
- Largest maker of advanced chips for AI and fast computers
- Analysts' median target near $355 suggests clear upside
- Industry sales data show the chip market is growing
- Continued AI capital spending supports buying on dips
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 63 days
Lyra published TSM at $299.24 on 2025-12-08 with an 18% expected gain over the short term. The thesis pointed to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing as the largest maker of advanced chips for artificial intelligence and fast computers, a median analyst target near $355, growing chip sales, and continued artificial intelligence capital spending that could support buying on dips.
Inside the window, the stock reached the $352.16 target in 63 days. It later peaked at $390.21 on 2026-02-25, a 30.4% gain from publication. By 2026-03-08, it ended at $338.89. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported fourth-quarter results, with revenue up 20% year over year and net income up more than 35%. On 2026-02-10, TSMC reported January sales growth of 36.8% year over year and 19.8% from December.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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