Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from December 7, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 7, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$293.93 Published $363.49 Target $338.89 Window close $390.21 Peak
$283.47 – $298.39Entry zone — fair-value band
$293.93Published — price the day we called it
$363.49Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$390.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$338.89Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 65 days.

Peak price
$390.21
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+32.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$338.89
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
65
Window
December 7, 2025 – March 7, 2026

The thesis — published December 7, 2025

Predicted growth
+24%
over the measurement window
Target price
$363.49
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$283.47 – $298.39
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$293.93
published December 7, 2025
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC makes the advanced chips that power big tech and AI. Recent results show sales more than doubled compared to last year pace in some areas and profit rose strongly, which supports demand for its factories. Shares have risen fast, so the idea is to buy small amounts on minor pullbacks rather than after big up moves to aim for near-term gains.

Primary drivers

  • World leader in making advanced chips for AI, phones and high-performance systems.
  • Reported sales more than doubled compared to last year and profits rose sharply.
  • Strong financial and market sentiment scores back its core-holding status.
  • Positive technical trend and rising recent average price support continued strength.

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 65 days

Lyra published TSM at 293.93 on 2025-12-07 with a short-term thesis for 24% expected growth. The target was 363.49. The thesis pointed to leadership in advanced chips for artificial intelligence, phones, and high-performance systems, sales more than doubled compared to last year in some areas, sharply higher profits, strong financial and market sentiment scores, and a positive technical trend.

Inside the window, TSM rose above the target. It peaked at 390.21 on 2026-02-25, with a 32.8% peak gain, and reached the target in 65 days. It ended at 338.89 on 2026-03-07. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported 2025 results and said 2026 capital spending would be 52 billion to 56 billion dollars. On 2026-02-10, TSMC's board approved 44.962 billion dollars in capital appropriations for new fabs and capacity upgrades.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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