Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from December 6, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 6, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$483.16 Published $570.13 Target $408.96 Window close $492.30 Peak
$470.00 – $485.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$483.16Published — price the day we called it
$570.13Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$492.30Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$408.96Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 11% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$492.30
peak on December 8, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+1.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$408.96
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 6, 2025 – March 6, 2026

The thesis — published December 6, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$570.13
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$470.00 – $485.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$483.16
published December 6, 2025
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft is a leading supplier of business software and cloud services that benefits from growing demand for AI and cloud computing. Right now its price is moving sideways, not rapidly higher, and big investors are continuing to buy. We expect modest gains over the next three months led by Azure and AI work, and prefer buying after small pullbacks.

Primary drivers

  • Market measures show Microsoft still leads large tech companies
  • Azure growth and AI deals give clear multi year revenue visibility
  • Interest from AI focused funds keeps steady institutional buying
  • Short term sideways price action favors adding on weakness, not chasing gains

How it played out

MSFT: the target was not reached

Lyra published MSFT at 483.16 on 2025-12-06 with 18% expected growth over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to business software, cloud services, Azure, artificial intelligence work, steady institutional buying, and sideways price action that favored buying after small pullbacks.

Inside the window, MSFT peaked at 492.3 on 2025-12-08, a 1.9% gain. It stayed below the 570.13 target and never reached it. By 2026-03-06, it ended at 408.96. The thesis missed on price action.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-28, Microsoft reported October to December 2025 revenue of $81.3 billion, up 17%, and profit of $30.9 billion. The Associated Press also reported that Microsoft's artificial intelligence centered cloud business generated $32.9 billion in sales, up 29%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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