Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from December 5, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 5, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 68 days.
The thesis — published December 5, 2025
TSMC is a way to benefit from fast-growing demand for AI chips. Its recent quarter showed sales rose 41 percent compared to last year, which means big customers are ordering more advanced chips. Price and trading activity suggest investors are increasingly buying. Buying small dips could offer good upside, though geopolitical risks remain.
Primary drivers
- Sales rose 41 percent compared to last year because of AI chip demand
- Recent trading shows lots more people are buying than usual near highs
- Market sentiment and company fundamentals are steady without big weaknesses
- Company holds a top position making the most advanced chip manufacturing processes
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 68 days
Lyra published TSM at 296 on 2025-12-05 with a short-term view for 24% growth. The thesis pointed to artificial-intelligence chip demand, sales up 41 percent from last year, heavier buying near highs, steady sentiment and fundamentals, and TSMC's position in advanced chip manufacturing.
Inside the window, TSM reached the 366.05 target in 68 days and peaked at 390.21 on 2026-02-25. That peak was a 31.8% gain. By 2026-03-05, it ended at 353.86, back below the target but still above the publication price. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported fourth-quarter revenue of $33.73 billion and said 2026 capital spending could reach $56 billion. On 2026-02-10, its board approved $44.962 billion for new fabs and upgrades.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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