Track record · closed signal

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) — closed signal from July 15, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 13, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

PGR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$213.78 – $220.85Entry zone — fair-value band

$232.50Published — price the day we called it

$251.31Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$239.61Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$222.17Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 21% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$239.61

peak on August 20, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+3.1%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$222.17

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

July 15, 2025 – October 13, 2025

The thesis — published July 15, 2025

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$251.31

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$213.78 – $220.85

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$232.50

published July 15, 2025

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock fell 11% ahead of tomorrow's earnings release. Several big buys around $245 hint at confident investors moving in. A research model points to results beating forecasts, and Progressive’s 23-year record of keeping claim costs at just 92 cents per premium dollar shows lasting strength. If numbers impress and positive mood holds, shares could rebound toward the May high near $288 over the next three months, giving late buyers room to profit.

Primary drivers

Earnings are due tomorrow and a data score hints results may top estimates.
After a drop, the stock looks oversold, so a quick bounce is more likely.
For 23 years the firm paid out only 92 cents per premium dollar, proving skill.
Large professional buys near $245 show big money is stepping in before earnings.

How it played out

PGR: thesis stayed below target

Lyra published PGR at 232.50 on July 15, 2025, with an expected growth of 15%. The thesis pointed to the stock falling 11% before earnings, several large buys around 245, a research model that pointed to results topping estimates, and Progressive's 23-year record of keeping claim costs at 92 cents per premium dollar.

Inside the window, PGR rose only modestly. It peaked at 239.61 on August 20, with a peak gain of 3.1%, and never reached the 251.31 target. By October 13, it ended at 222.17. The thesis partially played out at best, because the bounce happened but stayed below the target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All PGR signals