Track record · closed signal

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) — closed signal from December 2, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 2, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMZN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$234.97 Published $281.96 Target $208.39 Window close $248.94 Peak
$228.00 – $238.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$234.97Published — price the day we called it
$281.96Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$248.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$208.39Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 30% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$248.94
peak on January 12, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+5.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$208.39
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 2, 2025 – March 2, 2026

The thesis — published December 2, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$281.96
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$228.00 – $238.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$234.97
published December 2, 2025
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Amazon sells many things online, runs fast delivery and ads, and operates a big cloud business (AWS). More shoppers used Amazon over Cyber Weekend, and AWS plus ads bring higher profit margins. These factors give several ways the company can grow, so buying on short-term weakness could pay off over the next few months.

Primary drivers

  • Big scale in retail, cloud and digital ads
  • Cyber Weekend shows many shoppers use Amazon
  • AWS and ads lift profit margins
  • Trend suggests it can outperform after drops

How it played out

AMZN: target was not reached

Lyra published AMZN at $234.97 on 2025-12-02 with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to Amazon's scale in retail, cloud and digital ads, strong Cyber Weekend use, higher margins from AWS and ads, and a pattern of outperforming after drops.

Inside the window, AMZN peaked at $248.94 on 2026-01-12, a 5.9% gain. That stayed below the $281.96 target, so the target was never reached. By 2026-03-02, it ended at $208.39. The thesis partly played out on the early rise, but it missed the stated target.

What happened during the window

On Feb. 6, 2026, The Wall Street Journal reported that Amazon shares fell after the company outlined much higher 2026 capital spending tied to artificial intelligence and data centers. It also reported that Amazon's cloud growth lagged Microsoft and Alphabet in the quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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