Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from December 2, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 2, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 44 days.
The thesis — published December 2, 2025
TSMC makes the advanced chips that power AI, phones and data centers. Industry forecasts and Nvidia spending suggest steady demand ahead. The stock has been rising with strong trading, so the plan is to buy if it dips a bit and hold for a few months, while keeping an eye on political risk in Taiwan.
Primary drivers
- Makes the most advanced chips used by big AI and phone companies.
- Industry forecasts point to much bigger chip demand by 2026.
- Nvidia and others planning big AI spending supports chip orders.
- Recent strong trading makes dip buying attractive for short-term gains.
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 44 days
Lyra published TSM on 2025-12-02 at 291.14. The thesis expected 18% growth, with a 342.63 target. It pointed to advanced chips for artificial intelligence, phones, and data centers, bigger chip demand by 2026, Nvidia spending that supported chip orders, and strong recent trading that made a dip-buy setup attractive.
Inside the window, TSM reached the target in 44 days. The stock peaked at 390.21 on 2026-02-25, with a 34% peak gain. It ended the window at 369.11, still above the target. The published thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported fourth-quarter results, including 35% year-on-year earnings growth and revenue of $33.7 billion. MoneyWeek also reported that the shares rose 4.8% after the report.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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