Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. ADR (TSM) — closed signal from July 15, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 13, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 2 days.
The thesis — published July 15, 2025
TSMC’s price has slipped back to its recent average, a level where it often bounces. Selling pressure looks exhausted, which in the past has led to strong recoveries. Chip demand for artificial-intelligence gear keeps soaring, and U.S. officials just cleared Nvidia to ship more products that rely on TSMC’s newest plants. With results due 18 July, investors expect upbeat guidance and a possible return to $245 within three months.
Primary drivers
- Ultra-low momentum reading suggests sellers are mostly gone, paving way for quick gains.
- US approval for Nvidia exports lets TSMC run its most profitable factories at full speed.
- All cutting-edge production slots are taken through year-end, pointing to higher sales.
- July 18 earnings could confirm stronger second-half demand and lift management outlook.
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 2 days
On 2025-07-15, Lyra published a short-term TSM thesis at $227.34. It expected 8% growth toward $244.09 within three months. The thesis pointed to an ultra-low momentum reading, exhausted selling pressure, strong demand for artificial-intelligence gear, U.S. approval for Nvidia exports, full cutting-edge production slots, and July 18 earnings as possible support.
Inside the window, the market reached the target in 2 days. TSM later peaked at $306.47 on 2025-10-06, a 34.8% gain. It ended the window at $302.07. The published thesis played out, and the move went well past the target.
What happened during the window
On July 17, 2025, TSMC reported Q2 revenue of $30.07 billion and earnings of $2.47 per U.S. share, and guided Q3 revenue to $31.8 billion to $33 billion. On July 18, 2025, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC said N2 volume production was on track for the second half of 2025.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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