Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. ADR (TSM) — closed signal from July 15, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 13, 2025 — +32.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$219.42 – $227.33Entry zone — fair-value band

$227.34Published — price the day we called it

$244.09Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$306.47Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$302.07Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 2 days.

At window close

+32.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+34.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$302.07

last close inside the window, ended October 13, 2025

Peak price

$306.47

peak on October 6, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published July 15, 2025

Predicted growth

+8%

over the measurement window

Target price

$244.09

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$219.42 – $227.33

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$227.34

published July 15, 2025

Confidence

86%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC’s price has slipped back to its recent average, a level where it often bounces. Selling pressure looks exhausted, which in the past has led to strong recoveries. Chip demand for artificial-intelligence gear keeps soaring, and U.S. officials just cleared Nvidia to ship more products that rely on TSMC’s newest plants. With results due 18 July, investors expect upbeat guidance and a possible return to $245 within three months.

Primary drivers

Ultra-low momentum reading suggests sellers are mostly gone, paving way for quick gains.
US approval for Nvidia exports lets TSMC run its most profitable factories at full speed.
All cutting-edge production slots are taken through year-end, pointing to higher sales.
July 18 earnings could confirm stronger second-half demand and lift management outlook.

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 2 days

On 2025-07-15, Lyra published a short-term TSM thesis at $227.34. It expected 8% growth toward $244.09 within three months. The thesis pointed to an ultra-low momentum reading, exhausted selling pressure, strong demand for artificial-intelligence gear, U.S. approval for Nvidia exports, full cutting-edge production slots, and July 18 earnings as possible support.

Inside the window, the market reached the target in 2 days. TSM later peaked at $306.47 on 2025-10-06, a 34.8% gain. It ended the window at $302.07. The published thesis played out, and the move went well past the target.

What happened during the window

On July 17, 2025, TSMC reported Q2 revenue of $30.07 billion and earnings of $2.47 per U.S. share, and guided Q3 revenue to $31.8 billion to $33 billion. On July 18, 2025, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC said N2 volume production was on track for the second half of 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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