Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) — closed signal from December 1, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 1, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 55% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published December 1, 2025
Alibaba looks like a high-risk, high-reward rebound candidate. The stock fell a lot and now shows signs of people buying again, helped by strong cloud sales (34 percent growth) and hopes for government support. However, policy and governance uncertainty still weigh on the company, so any upside depends on calm news from China.
Primary drivers
- Price dropped a lot, now attracting buyers on higher volume.
- Cloud business is expanding fast and helps profits improve.
- Media reports link recent share gains to possible Beijing support.
- Regulatory and governance worries still keep risk elevated.
How it played out
BABA: rebound thesis only partly played out
On 2025-12-01, Lyra published a short-term rebound thesis on BABA at 159.81. The expected growth was 24%, with a target of 198.16. The thesis pointed to buyers returning after a large drop, higher volume, cloud sales growth of 34 percent, possible Beijing support, and continuing policy and governance risk.
Inside the window, BABA rose to 181.10 on 2026-01-22, a peak gain of 13.3%. It stayed below the target. By the 2026-03-01 window end, it was at 144.11. The rebound happened, but it did not reach the published target and then faded. The thesis partly played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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