Track record · closed signal

AppLovin Corporation (APP) — closed signal from December 1, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 1, 2026 — -25.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

APP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$560.00 – $590.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$584.60Published — price the day we called it

$742.44Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$738.01Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$434.77Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 97% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

-25.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+26.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$434.77

last close inside the window, ended March 1, 2026

Peak price

$738.01

peak on December 22, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 1, 2025

Predicted growth

+27%

over the measurement window

Target price

$742.44

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$560.00 – $590.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$584.60

published December 1, 2025

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

AppLovin sells tools that use AI to help app makers show and manage ads. Analysts are optimistic and a big bank gave a higher price target, suggesting expected sales and earnings growth. The stock recently pulled back after a strong rise; that pause plus positive signals makes it interesting, but the price is high so buy carefully and manage risk.

Primary drivers

AI tools that help apps earn more from ads and cut costs.
Recent price action looks healthy enough to continue the trend.
A major bank restated a Buy with an $820 target, showing support.
High price and strong sentiment mean losses could be sharp if growth slips.

How it played out

APP: thesis nearly reached target, then faded

Lyra published APP at $584.60 on 2025-12-01 with expected growth of 27%. The thesis pointed to advertising tools tied to artificial intelligence, a pullback after a strong rise, analyst optimism, and a major bank's Buy rating with an $820 target. It also noted that the high price and strong sentiment could make losses sharp if growth slipped.

Inside the window, APP rose to $738.01 on 2025-12-22, a 26.2% peak gain. The published target was $742.44. It never got there. By 2026-03-01, the stock ended at $434.77. The thesis almost played out at the peak, but the signal missed its target and finished below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-12, Barron's reported that AppLovin posted fourth-quarter earnings per share of $3.24 and revenue of $1.66 billion. On 2026-02-19, AppLovin filed its 2025 annual report with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All APP signals