Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from December 1, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 1, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 70 days.
The thesis — published December 1, 2025
TSMC is the main maker of advanced chips used in AI and fast computing. Its business and spending plans support growth, and analysts see the stock steady in the $280-$295 range. News that Apple may use some Intel capacity from 2027 adds future competition but probably won't hurt near-term profits. Expect gradual gains if AI orders remain strong, though politics in the region adds risk.
Primary drivers
- Makes leading chips used in AI and high performance computing.
- Price has held above recent average levels with more buying than usual.
- Apple using Intel 18A raises long-term competition but little short-term impact.
- Valuation is high but supported by long-term AI demand and careful capex.
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 70 days
Lyra published TSM at $288.59 on 2025-12-01 with expected growth of 24%. The thesis pointed to leading chips used in artificial intelligence and high performance computing, strong buying, limited short-term impact from possible Apple use of Intel capacity from 2027, and valuation supported by long-term demand and careful capex.
Inside the window, TSM rose past the $356.89 target and peaked at $390.21 on 2026-02-25. The peak gain was 35.2%. It reached the target in 70 days and ended at $374.58 on 2026-03-01. The published thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $33.73 billion and net income of about $16.012 billion. On 2026-01-15, TSMC also said its Phoenix second fab was planned to open next year instead of in 2028.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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