Track record · closed signal

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) — closed signal from July 15, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 13, 2025 — -10.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$171.56 – $175.41Entry zone — fair-value band

$177.45Published — price the day we called it

$189.89Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$180.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$158.03Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 20% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-10.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+1.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$158.03

last close inside the window, ended October 13, 2025

Peak price

$180.63

peak on July 16, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 15, 2025

Predicted growth

+9%

over the measurement window

Target price

$189.89

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$171.56 – $175.41

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$177.45

published July 15, 2025

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Philip Morris shares sit a few percent below their long-term average price and near the low end of their usual range, a spot that has often been followed by roughly 10 % rebounds. U.S. officials just agreed to review ZYN pouches for lower-risk marketing, which could boost sales. With faster IQOS device launches and a 4.8 % cash yield, a rise toward $196 within three months looks realistic.

Primary drivers

Regulators may let ZYN claim lower harm, lifting pouch demand.
Past price lows like todays often led to 8-12 % rebounds within 3 months.
IQOS ILUMA rollout in five European countries keeps heated-tobacco sales climbing.
A 4.8 % dividend plus buybacks offer a safety cushion near 15× profits.

How it played out

PM: the target was never reached

Lyra published PM on 2025-07-15 at $177.45. The thesis expected 9% growth over a short-term window. It pointed to a review path for ZYN lower-risk marketing, past rebounds after similar price lows, IQOS ILUMA launches in five European countries, and a 4.8% dividend plus buybacks as support.

Inside the 2025-07-15 to 2025-10-13 window, PM peaked at $180.63 on 2025-07-16, a 1.8% gain. It stayed below the $189.89 target. The stock ended at $158.03. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-07-22, Philip Morris reported second-quarter results. Investopedia reported revenue of $10.14 billion, up 7.1%, below the $10.27 billion estimate, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.91. The Wall Street Journal reported the same day that Zyn shipments were 191 million cans, below analysts' forecast of 204 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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