Track record · closed signal

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) — closed signal from November 22, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 20, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SHOP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$147.80 Published $181.79 Target $126.20 Window close $172.98 Peak
$142.00 – $150.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$147.80Published — price the day we called it
$181.79Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$172.98Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$126.20Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 74% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$172.98
peak on December 22, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+17%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$126.20
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 22, 2025 – February 20, 2026

The thesis — published November 22, 2025

Predicted growth
+23%
over the measurement window
Target price
$181.79
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$142.00 – $150.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$147.80
published November 22, 2025
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Shopify is a fast-moving online store and payments company that pulled back after a strong run. Right now many people are still enthusiastic and trading a lot, while the company's underlying results are good but not flawless. That mix means investors are paying a premium for future growth. With no new news, the near-term idea is a sentiment-led rebound over the next few months, sized cautiously.

Primary drivers

  • Market leader for online and in-store selling with steady customer demand.
  • Short-term pullback inside a longer upward trend; price recently dipped below recent average.
  • Very high investor interest and trading volume show belief in future growth.
  • Higher valuation and execution risks merit moderate position sizes and stop controls.

How it played out

SHOP: rebound fell short of the target

Lyra published SHOP at 147.8 on 2025-11-22 with a short-term setup. The thesis expected 23% growth toward 181.79. It pointed to Shopify's role in online and in-store selling, steady customer demand, a pullback inside a longer upward trend, high investor interest and trading volume, and valuation and execution risks that called for caution.

Inside the window, SHOP rose to 172.98 on 2025-12-22, a 17% peak gain. That stayed below 181.79. It never got there. By 2026-02-20, the stock ended at 126.2. The thesis partly played out, because the rebound came, but the published target was missed and the window closed below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-11, Shopify reported fourth-quarter revenue of $3.67 billion, up 31%, and announced a $2 billion share buyback program. On the same date, reports said the stock fell after adjusted earnings per share missed analyst expectations.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SHOP signals