Track record · closed signal

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) — closed signal from November 20, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 18, 2026 — -20.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SHOP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$148.00 – $154.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$152.71Published — price the day we called it

$175.61Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$172.98Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$121.64Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 89% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

-20.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+13.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$121.64

last close inside the window, ended February 18, 2026

Peak price

$172.98

peak on December 22, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published November 20, 2025

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$175.61

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$148.00 – $154.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$152.71

published November 20, 2025

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Shopify looks set for a bounce after a sharp drop. The price seems pushed too far down, while interest in the stock stays strong. New partnerships and higher analyst targets improve the story. Buying pressure could build over time, but it is safer to add on dips instead of chasing quick moves. In a slightly upbeat market, a recovery over the next three months is reasonable as investors return to well-run software names.

Primary drivers

The price fell hard, but many investors still feel positive about Shopify.
New partnerships and higher analyst targets strengthen the growth story.
Recent strength could make short sellers buy back shares, adding lift.
Add gradually on dips because a few short-term signals look softer now.

How it played out

SHOP: bounce came close, then faded

Lyra published SHOP at $152.71 on 2025-11-20 with a short-term view for 15% growth. The thesis pointed to a sharp drop that looked overdone, still-positive investor interest, new partnerships, higher analyst targets, possible short-covering support, and a safer approach of adding on dips instead of chasing quick moves.

Inside the window, SHOP rose to $172.98 on 2025-12-22, a 13.3% peak gain. That stayed below the $175.61 target, so the target was never reached. By 2026-02-18, it ended at $121.64. The bounce partly played out, but the full thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-11, Axios reported that Google, Shopify, and retailers introduced the Universal Commerce Protocol for shopping with artificial intelligence systems. On 2026-02-11, Barron's reported Shopify's fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $3.67 billion and a $2 billion buyback program.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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