Track record · closed signal

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK) — closed signal from November 20, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 18, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

STOK price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$29.03 Published $40.64 Target $30.98 Window close $37.34 Peak
$28.20 – $29.70Entry zone — fair-value band
$29.03Published — price the day we called it
$40.64Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$37.34Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$30.98Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 72% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$37.34
peak on January 7, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+28.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$30.98
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 20, 2025 – February 18, 2026

The thesis — published November 20, 2025

Predicted growth
+40%
over the measurement window
Target price
$40.64
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$28.20 – $29.70
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$29.03
published November 20, 2025
Confidence
88%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Investors are turning more positive, and the price has been climbing at a steady pace. New 2-year data on people with Dravet syndrome show the medical need remains large, boosting belief in the company's drug plans. Buying looks stronger than usual and the recent average price is rising. Biotech news can move prices fast, so the idea is to buy carefully for strong 3-month upside while watching trading volume and trial timing.

Primary drivers

  • New 2-year Dravet patient data show the need for better treatment is large
  • More buyers than usual and the recent average price are both trending up
  • Rising interest and price strength are moving together, which supports gains
  • A careful buy plan aims for upside while respecting biotech news swings

How it played out

STOK: thesis rose but missed the target

Lyra published STOK on 2025-11-20 at 29.03 with expected growth of 40%. The thesis pointed to stronger investor interest, steady price gains, 2-year Dravet patient data, unusual buying, a rising recent average price, and a careful buy plan around biotech news swings.

Inside the 2025-11-20 to 2026-02-18 window, STOK rose to 37.34 on 2026-01-07, a peak gain of 28.6%. It stayed below the 40.64 target. By the end of the window it was 30.98. The thesis partly played out, but the target was never reached.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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