Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (ADR) (TSM) — closed signal from November 20, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 18, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 56 days.
The thesis — published November 20, 2025
TSM is a strong way to benefit from the money companies are spending on AI chips. The trend looks healthier, with the recent average price pointing up. Nvidia's strong results mean TSM's newest factories should stay busy, helping near-term prices and orders. Recently, lots more people are buying than usual. If the price dips, that can be a better entry. Good cash flow, solid new chip lines, and a more risk-friendly market support the next 3 months.
Primary drivers
- Nvidia's strong AI demand keeps TSM's most advanced factories busy.
- Rising recent average price and higher-than-usual buying support the trend.
- TSM's newest chip lines help it keep good pricing and steady orders.
- A more confident market favors chip makers and lifts leaders like TSM.
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 56 days
Lyra published TSM on 2025-11-20 at 291.17 for a short-term window ending 2026-02-18. The thesis expected 17% growth. It pointed to spending on artificial intelligence chips, Nvidia's strong demand, rising recent average price, higher-than-usual buying, newer chip lines, steady orders, good cash flow, and a more risk-friendly market.
Inside the window, TSM reached the 339.76 target in 56 days. It peaked at 379.69 on 2026-02-12, with a 30.4% peak gain. It ended the window at 362.26, still above the target. The published thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2026-02-10, MarketWatch reported that TSMC's January sales rose 37% from the prior year to NT$401.3 billion. On 2026-02-10, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC's board approved $44.962 billion in capital appropriations for new fabs and capacity upgrades.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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