Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) — closed signal from July 14, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 12, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 24% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 14, 2025
UBS now thinks the shares are worth $181 because the newer smoke-free products bring in higher profits. The price has slipped enough that many traders see a bargain. Add a reliable 5% yearly cash payout and very upbeat investor mood, and analysts believe the stock could rise about 8% over the next three months as careful buyers look for steady companies.
Primary drivers
- UBS upgrade points to higher profits from smoke-free products.
- Share looks cheap after recent drop; a short-term bounce is likely.
- Strong analyst rating and positive mood attract value-focused investors.
- Robust cash flow and 5% dividend help protect against big losses.
How it played out
PM: the target was not reached
Lyra published PM on 2025-07-14 at $177.33 with an 8% expected gain and a $188.01 target. The thesis pointed to UBS valuing the shares at $181, higher profits from smoke-free products, a cheaper-looking share after a recent drop, a 5% yearly cash payout, and upbeat investor mood.
Inside the window, PM rose only briefly. The peak was $180.63 on 2025-07-16, a 1.9% gain, and it stayed below the $188.01 target. It never got there. By 2025-10-12, the stock ended at $159.02. The thesis missed on price.
What happened during the window
On 2025-07-22, Philip Morris reported second-quarter revenue of $10.14 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $1.91. The report said smoke-free product volume rose 11.8% and sales rose 15.2%.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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