Track record · closed signal

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) — closed signal from July 14, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 12, 2025 — -10.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$177.33 Published $188.01 Target $159.02 Window close $180.63 Peak
$171.56 – $174.45Entry zone — fair-value band
$177.33Published — price the day we called it
$188.01Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$180.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$159.02Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 24% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-10.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+1.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$159.02
last close inside the window, ended October 12, 2025
Peak price
$180.63
peak on July 16, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 14, 2025

Predicted growth
+8%
over the measurement window
Target price
$188.01
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$171.56 – $174.45
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$177.33
published July 14, 2025
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

UBS now thinks the shares are worth $181 because the newer smoke-free products bring in higher profits. The price has slipped enough that many traders see a bargain. Add a reliable 5% yearly cash payout and very upbeat investor mood, and analysts believe the stock could rise about 8% over the next three months as careful buyers look for steady companies.

Primary drivers

  • UBS upgrade points to higher profits from smoke-free products.
  • Share looks cheap after recent drop; a short-term bounce is likely.
  • Strong analyst rating and positive mood attract value-focused investors.
  • Robust cash flow and 5% dividend help protect against big losses.

How it played out

PM: the target was not reached

Lyra published PM on 2025-07-14 at $177.33 with an 8% expected gain and a $188.01 target. The thesis pointed to UBS valuing the shares at $181, higher profits from smoke-free products, a cheaper-looking share after a recent drop, a 5% yearly cash payout, and upbeat investor mood.

Inside the window, PM rose only briefly. The peak was $180.63 on 2025-07-16, a 1.9% gain, and it stayed below the $188.01 target. It never got there. By 2025-10-12, the stock ended at $159.02. The thesis missed on price.

What happened during the window

On 2025-07-22, Philip Morris reported second-quarter revenue of $10.14 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $1.91. The report said smoke-free product volume rose 11.8% and sales rose 15.2%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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