Track record · closed signal

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK) — closed signal from November 19, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 17, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

STOK price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$28.52 Published $37.64 Target $31.09 Window close $37.34 Peak
$27.50 – $28.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$28.52Published — price the day we called it
$37.64Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$37.34Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$31.09Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$37.34
peak on January 7, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+30.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$31.09
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 19, 2025 – February 17, 2026

The thesis — published November 19, 2025

Predicted growth
+32%
over the measurement window
Target price
$37.64
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$27.50 – $28.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$28.52
published November 19, 2025
Confidence
92%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

We see a good 0-3 month window for a move up because buying interest is picking up and the recent average price trend is improving. A new two-year Dravet study published with Biogen adds weight to the medical case and could ease insurance conversations. Trading volume is lighter, but the setup and visibility on the pipeline look solid as the overall market turns more positive, which can help the stock stabilize and climb.

Primary drivers

  • Price trend is turning up, with more buying than usual and steadier gains.
  • Investor mood is very positive, keeping steady interest in the shares.
  • New Biogen-linked Dravet data boosts confidence in the treatment path.
  • Market tone favors biotech now, making potential gains easier to hold.

How it played out

STOK: rose close but missed the target

Lyra published STOK on November 19, 2025 at $28.52, looking for 32% growth over a 0-3 month window. The thesis pointed to improving price trend, more buying interest, positive investor mood, new Biogen-linked Dravet data from a two-year study, and a market tone that favored biotech.

Inside the window, STOK rose to $37.34 on January 7, 2026, with a 30.9% peak gain. That stayed below the $37.64 target, so the target was never reached. By February 17, 2026, it ended at $31.09. The thesis mostly played out on direction, but missed on the stated target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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