Track record · closed signal

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK) — closed signal from November 18, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 16, 2026 — +14.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

STOK price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$26.80 – $28.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$27.83Published — price the day we called it

$37.57Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$37.34Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$31.91Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 98% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+14.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+34.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$31.91

last close inside the window, ended February 16, 2026

Peak price

$37.34

peak on January 7, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published November 18, 2025

Predicted growth

+35%

over the measurement window

Target price

$37.57

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$26.80 – $28.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$27.83

published November 18, 2025

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Investor mood is very positive after Biogen and the company shared two-year results for their Dravet program on 11/17, showing families still need better options. The business looks solid for a mid-size biotech. The price trend has been getting healthier, and if buying pressure picks up, the next move up could follow. We prefer adding on pullbacks over the next 0-3 months while updates remain favorable.

Primary drivers

New results backed by Biogen show patients still lack good treatment options
Price trend is improving, with stronger interest building among buyers
Company finances and pipeline look healthier than similar mid-size biotechs
Many analysts think the stock could rise further based on their price targets

How it played out

STOK: target narrowly missed

Lyra published STOK at $27.83 on 2025-11-18 with expected growth of 35%. The thesis pointed to Biogen-backed two-year Dravet program results shared on 11/17, an improving price trend, healthier finances and pipeline than similar mid-size biotechs, and analyst price targets that suggested more room to rise.

Inside the 2025-11-18 to 2026-02-16 window, STOK rose as high as $37.34 on 2026-01-07, a peak gain of 34.2%. The target was $37.57. It never got there. The stock ended the window at $31.91. The thesis mostly played out on price, but it missed the stated target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All STOK signals