Track record · closed signal

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK) — closed signal from November 18, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 16, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

STOK price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$27.83 Published $37.57 Target $31.91 Window close $37.34 Peak
$26.80 – $28.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$27.83Published — price the day we called it
$37.57Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$37.34Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$31.91Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$37.34
peak on January 7, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+34.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$31.91
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 18, 2025 – February 16, 2026

The thesis — published November 18, 2025

Predicted growth
+35%
over the measurement window
Target price
$37.57
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$26.80 – $28.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$27.83
published November 18, 2025
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Investor mood is very positive after Biogen and the company shared two-year results for their Dravet program on 11/17, showing families still need better options. The business looks solid for a mid-size biotech. The price trend has been getting healthier, and if buying pressure picks up, the next move up could follow. We prefer adding on pullbacks over the next 0-3 months while updates remain favorable.

Primary drivers

  • New results backed by Biogen show patients still lack good treatment options
  • Price trend is improving, with stronger interest building among buyers
  • Company finances and pipeline look healthier than similar mid-size biotechs
  • Many analysts think the stock could rise further based on their price targets

How it played out

STOK: target narrowly missed

Lyra published STOK at $27.83 on 2025-11-18 with expected growth of 35%. The thesis pointed to Biogen-backed two-year Dravet program results shared on 11/17, an improving price trend, healthier finances and pipeline than similar mid-size biotechs, and analyst price targets that suggested more room to rise.

Inside the 2025-11-18 to 2026-02-16 window, STOK rose as high as $37.34 on 2026-01-07, a peak gain of 34.2%. The target was $37.57. It never got there. The stock ended the window at $31.91. The thesis mostly played out on price, but it missed the stated target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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