Track record · closed signal

XP Inc. (XP) — closed signal from November 18, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 16, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

XP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$18.73 Published $23.18 Target $19.87 Window close $20.98 Peak
$17.84 – $18.62Entry zone — fair-value band
$18.73Published — price the day we called it
$23.18Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$20.98Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$19.87Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 48% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$20.98
peak on January 28, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+12%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$19.87
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 18, 2025 – February 16, 2026

The thesis — published November 18, 2025

Predicted growth
+25%
over the measurement window
Target price
$23.18
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$17.84 – $18.62
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$18.73
published November 18, 2025
Confidence
79%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

On 11/17 the company announced a new R$1B share buyback and dividends. On 11/18 it also said retail clients added about BRL 20B in new money last quarter. Together, this signals cash being returned to investors and continuing growth. Buying interest looks stronger than usual, and mood is upbeat. If the price holds steady over the next few weeks and money keeps flowing in, the stock could be revalued within 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • R$1B buyback and new dividends can lift profit per share and show confidence.
  • Buying interest higher than usual after a sharp slide, hinting at a turn.
  • Strong inflows from retail clients add fresh funds to grow the business.
  • Very positive mood and heavier trading make a rebound easier to sustain.

How it played out

XP: target was not reached inside the window

Lyra published XP at $18.73 on 2025-11-18, with expected growth of 25% over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a new R$1B buyback, new dividends, stronger-than-usual buying interest after a sharp slide, about BRL 20B in retail client new money last quarter, and very positive mood with heavier trading.

Inside the window from 2025-11-18 to 2026-02-16, XP rose but did not reach the $23.18 target. The peak was $20.98 on 2026-01-28, a 12% gain. It ended at $19.87. The thesis partially played out on direction, but missed the target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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