Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from November 16, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 14, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$498.13 – $508.10Entry zone — fair-value band

$509.23Published — price the day we called it

$609.93Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$511.16Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$401.32Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 2% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$511.16

peak on November 17, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+0.4%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$401.32

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

November 16, 2025 – February 14, 2026

The thesis — published November 16, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$609.93

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$498.13 – $508.10

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$509.23

published November 16, 2025

Confidence

65%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

- Explain the big picture - Why the dip may be a chance - What could move price soon Microsoft is a top player in cloud and AI. Reports say it plans to roughly double its data centers to power Azure and Copilot, pointing to steady demand. The price has pulled back, and some short-term signals look tired, but cash flow is strong. Over the next 0-3 months, it could rebound as more buyers return.

Primary drivers

Building far more data centers signals long-term demand for Azure and AI
Short-term signals suggest the pullback may be close to running its course
Strong positions in cloud services and AI tools like Copilot and Azure
Reliable growth and solid cash flows can cushion market ups and downs

How it played out

MSFT: target missed after 0.4% peak gain

Lyra published MSFT at 509.23 on 2025-11-16 with 20% expected growth and a 609.93 target. The thesis pointed to cloud strength, artificial intelligence demand, a larger data center buildout, tired short-term signals after a pullback, and solid cash flow as support for a rebound over the next 0-3 months.

Inside the window, MSFT peaked at 511.16 on 2025-11-17, with a peak gain of 0.4%. It never reached 609.93. By 2026-02-14, the stock ended at 401.32. The published thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-18, Microsoft announced a partnership with Anthropic and Nvidia. Anthropic committed to buying $30 billion of Azure compute capacity. On 2026-01-28, Microsoft reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $81.3 billion, up 17%, and Azure growth of 39%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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