Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from November 16, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 14, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 85 days.
The thesis — published November 16, 2025
TSM looks ready to rebound after a sharp pullback. Apple reserved over half of its 2nm chip capacity for 2026, signaling strong future demand. Bank of America kept its Buy rating, and October sales rose 16.9%. The price slipped below its recent average price, and there is more buying than usual. If the economy stays steady, a 0-3 month rebound toward prior highs is possible.
Primary drivers
- Apple locked over half of 2nm capacity for 2026, showing strong demand
- Pullback looks overdone; buyers returning with higher-than-usual activity
- AI and high-performance computing needs should keep chip orders strong
- Leaders can rise when top chip names hold up in a steady market
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 85 days
Lyra published TSM at $284.05 on 2025-11-16 with expected growth of 24%. The thesis pointed to Apple reserving over half of 2nm capacity for 2026, a pullback that looked overdone, higher-than-usual buying activity, demand from artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, and a steady market helping leading chip names.
Inside the window, TSM reached the $351.28 target in 85 days. The peak was $379.69 on 2026-02-12, with a peak gain of 33.7%. It ended the window at $366.36. The published thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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