Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from November 15, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 13, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 2% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published November 15, 2025
Microsoft's price looks tired after a pullback, even though many investors remain positive. The company just committed $10B to AI data centers in Portugal, strengthening Azure and its AI tools. We expect a few months of sideways-to-better action as the recent average price is regained. Key risks: the stock is already pricey, profit mix could shift, and currency moves. A move back above the recent average price would raise confidence.
Primary drivers
- Price pulled back, yet investor interest remains solid and steady
- Heavy spending to expand Azure and AI services should drive growth
- New $10B data center plan in Portugal strengthens Microsoft's AI edge
- Add more only if the trend improves and demand looks healthier
How it played out
MSFT: target never reached in the window
On 2025-11-15, Lyra published a short-term MSFT thesis at $509.23 with expected growth of 18% and a target of $599.77. The thesis pointed to a pullback with steady investor interest, spending to expand Azure and artificial intelligence services, and a new $10B data center plan in Portugal.
Inside the window, MSFT peaked at $511.16 on 2025-11-17, a 0.4% gain. That stayed below the $599.77 target, so the target was never reached. By 2026-02-13, the stock ended at $401.32. The thesis missed.
What happened during the window
On January 28, 2026, Microsoft reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $81.3 billion and net income of $30.9 billion. The Verge also reported that Azure and related cloud services grew 39%, while gaming revenue fell 9%.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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