Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) — closed signal from November 15, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 13, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 61 days.
The thesis — published November 15, 2025
TSMC's share price looks washed out after a sharp slide, while interest in the company remains very strong. Many pros still see it as a key supplier for AI chips. Fresh news highlights a planned $165B factory build in Phoenix, which should ease tariff and supply worries and support steady demand for several quarters. If the price turns up toward its recent average and buyer interest broadens, that would support a rebound over the next 3 months.
Primary drivers
- Price dropped a lot, yet investor mood remains very positive
- Essential chip maker for AI, adding new factories in the U.S.
- $165B Phoenix plan cuts trade and supply chain worries
- Likely turn up if price firms and buying strength improves
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 61 days
Lyra published TSM at 284.05 on 2025-11-15. The thesis expected 22% growth over the short-term window. It pointed to a washed-out share price after a sharp slide, positive investor mood, demand tied to artificial intelligence chips, new U.S. factories, and the $165B Phoenix plan as reasons a rebound could develop.
Inside the window, the stock reached the 345.61 target in 61 days. It kept rising to a 379.69 peak on 2026-02-12, with a 33.7% peak gain. It ended the window at 366.36. The published thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported fourth-quarter revenue of $33.73 billion and said 2026 capital spending would be $52 billion to $56 billion. On 2026-01-15, Axios reported that TSMC planned to open its second Phoenix fab next year instead of in 2028.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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