Track record · closed signal

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) — closed signal from November 14, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 12, 2026 — -0.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

BABA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$159.36 Published $203.98 Target $158.73 Window close $181.10 Peak
$157.00 – $160.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$159.36Published — price the day we called it
$203.98Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$181.10Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$158.73Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 49% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-0.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+13.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.7%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$158.73
last close inside the window, ended February 12, 2026
Peak price
$181.10
peak on January 22, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published November 14, 2025

Predicted growth
+28%
over the measurement window
Target price
$203.98
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$157.00 – $160.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$159.36
published November 14, 2025
Confidence
63%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alibaba is a high-risk, news-driven turnaround idea. The company is pushing AI across its cloud and B2B units, with Alibaba.com adding an AI search tool and reports of a large subsidy plan. The stock has fallen hard, so a mood shift could lift it over the next 3 months. But China's economy and regulation are real risks, so start small and add only if the story and price action keep improving and headlines stay positive.

Primary drivers

  • Fresh push to use AI across the company's products
  • New AI search mode launched on Alibaba.com
  • Stock has dropped a lot, which can set up a rebound
  • China's economy and rules still add real risk

How it played out

BABA: rebound peaked below target

Lyra published BABA at 159.36 on 2025-11-14 as a short-term turnaround idea. The thesis expected 28% growth and pointed to a fresh push into artificial intelligence across products, a new artificial intelligence search mode on Alibaba.com, a sharp prior drop in the stock, and real risk from China's economy and rules.

Inside the window, BABA rose as high as 181.10 on 2026-01-22, a 13.6% peak gain. It stayed below the 203.98 target and ended at 158.73 on 2026-02-12. The rebound partly played out, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-25, AP reported that Alibaba's cloud revenue rose 34% in the July-September quarter, while total revenue rose 5% to 247.8 billion yuan and profit fell 52%. AP also reported that Alibaba's upgraded Qwen chatbot recorded 10 million downloads in its first week after public launch.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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