Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from November 14, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 12, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 62 days.
The thesis — published November 14, 2025
TSM is a key maker behind AI chips, with solid finances and a positive outlook. The price has dropped a lot, which can offer a better entry. A major supplier said demand for AI chip tools is stronger than expected, hinting at more factory runs. Even if near-term trend signals look weak, buying in small steps and adding after a clear turn aims to cut timing risk and catch a possible 3-month rebound as orders and capacity increase.
Primary drivers
- Leads in making the most advanced chips used for AI and high-power computing
- Big recent price drop may offer a better entry with gains outweighing risk
- Supplier outlook points to stronger-than-expected demand from chipmakers
- Buying in steps helps reduce risk from weak short-term price signals
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 62 days
Lyra published TSM at 280.95 on 2025-11-14, with 22% expected growth and a 341.84 target. The thesis pointed to TSM's role in advanced chips for artificial intelligence and high-power computing, solid finances, a recent price drop, stronger supplier demand signals, and staged buying to manage weak short-term trend signals.
Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 62 days. It peaked at 379.69 on 2026-02-12, with a 35.1% gain. It ended at 368.10, still above the target. The thesis played out and more than reached its published goal.
What happened during the window
On 2025-12-29, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC had started volume production of its 2nm-class N2 chips in Q4 2025. On 2026-01-15, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC published 2025 results and set 2026 capital spending at $52 billion to $56 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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