Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from November 14, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 12, 2026 — +31% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$268.55 – $278.49Entry zone — fair-value band

$280.95Published — price the day we called it

$341.84Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$379.69Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$368.10Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 62 days.

At window close

+31%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+35.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$368.10

last close inside the window, ended February 12, 2026

Peak price

$379.69

peak on February 12, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published November 14, 2025

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$341.84

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$268.55 – $278.49

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$280.95

published November 14, 2025

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is a key maker behind AI chips, with solid finances and a positive outlook. The price has dropped a lot, which can offer a better entry. A major supplier said demand for AI chip tools is stronger than expected, hinting at more factory runs. Even if near-term trend signals look weak, buying in small steps and adding after a clear turn aims to cut timing risk and catch a possible 3-month rebound as orders and capacity increase.

Primary drivers

Leads in making the most advanced chips used for AI and high-power computing
Big recent price drop may offer a better entry with gains outweighing risk
Supplier outlook points to stronger-than-expected demand from chipmakers
Buying in steps helps reduce risk from weak short-term price signals

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 62 days

Lyra published TSM at 280.95 on 2025-11-14, with 22% expected growth and a 341.84 target. The thesis pointed to TSM's role in advanced chips for artificial intelligence and high-power computing, solid finances, a recent price drop, stronger supplier demand signals, and staged buying to manage weak short-term trend signals.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 62 days. It peaked at 379.69 on 2026-02-12, with a 35.1% gain. It ended at 368.10, still above the target. The thesis played out and more than reached its published goal.

What happened during the window

On 2025-12-29, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC had started volume production of its 2nm-class N2 chips in Q4 2025. On 2026-01-15, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC published 2025 results and set 2026 capital spending at $52 billion to $56 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals