Track record · closed signal

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) — closed signal from November 13, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 11, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

ASML price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$1,034.88 Published $1,241.86 Target $1,435.63 Window close $1,493.48 Peak
$1,015.00 – $1,030.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$1,034.88Published — price the day we called it
$1,241.86Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,493.48Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,435.63Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 54 days.

Peak price
$1,493.48
peak on January 28, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+44.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$1,435.63
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
54
Window
November 13, 2025 – February 11, 2026

The thesis — published November 13, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,241.86
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$1,015.00 – $1,030.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$1,034.88
published November 13, 2025
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

ASML looks like a top-tier company that was sold off too hard, which can set up a bounce. Investor mood remains strong. New this week: SK Hynix plans to use ASML's latest high-NA tools at scale, and a strong independent growth score points to a durable edge. In the next 0-3 months, a rebound is likely if momentum steadies; buy near weakness and watch for a close above $1065 with strong trading activity.

Primary drivers

  • Stock looks oversold while optimism holds, which could set up a rebound
  • SK Hynix plans to use ASML high-NA EUV tools at scale, boosting demand
  • Strong third-party growth score (88%) supports a lasting competitive edge
  • Rising demand from AI and chip equipment spending supports long-term growth

How it played out

ASML: target reached in 54 days

Lyra published ASML on 2025-11-13 at $1034.88, with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to a stock that looked oversold while investor optimism held. It also pointed to SK Hynix plans to use ASML high-NA EUV tools at scale, an 88% growth score, and demand tied to artificial intelligence and chip equipment spending.

Inside the window, ASML peaked at $1493.48 on 2026-01-28, above the $1241.86 target. It reached the target in 54 days. The signal ended at $1435.63. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On Jan. 28, 2026, ASML reported fourth-quarter bookings of €13.16 billion. The same day, SK Hynix said it planned a considerable capital-expenditure increase.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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