Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from November 12, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 10, 2026 — +24.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$291.00 Published $342.46 Target $361.91 Window close $364.76 Peak
$286.45 – $293.41Entry zone — fair-value band
$291.00Published — price the day we called it
$342.46Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$364.76Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$361.91Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 64 days.

At window close
+24.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+25.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$361.91
last close inside the window, ended February 10, 2026
Peak price
$364.76
peak on February 10, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
64

The thesis — published November 12, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$342.46
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$286.45 – $293.41
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$291.00
published November 12, 2025
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC makes cutting-edge chips for many top customers. The stock looks beaten down, while long-term demand from AI and powerful data centers stays strong. Reports say Nvidia has about $300B in chip orders, likely keeping TSMC's newest factories busy for many quarters. In a healthy market, consider starting near $288-$295 and add only if price and trading interest improve. Main risks: chip ups and downs, export limits, and geopolitics.

Primary drivers

  • The stock looks beaten down, with early signs that the setup is improving.
  • AI and powerful data center chips should keep TSMC's most advanced lines busy.
  • Reports on Nvidia's very large orders point to a strong pipeline ahead.
  • A more supportive overall market can help the share price recover.

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 64 days

Lyra published TSM on 2025-11-12 at $291 for a short-term window ending 2026-02-10. The thesis expected 18% growth, with a target of $342.46. It pointed to a beaten-down setup, demand from artificial intelligence and data center chips, reported Nvidia orders, and a more supportive overall market.

Inside the window, TSM reached the target in 64 days. The peak was $364.76 on 2026-02-10, with a 25.3% peak gain. It ended at $361.91, still above the target. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On January 15, 2026, TSMC reported record fourth-quarter earnings, with profit up 35% year over year and revenue up 20%. On the same date, reports said the company projected up to $56 billion in 2026 capital spending.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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