XP Inc. (XP) — closed signal from November 11, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 9, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 36% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published November 11, 2025
XP's stock has been climbing steadily with strong interest from buyers. Past research showed earnings per share grew 26% each year over five years even while the share price dropped 62%, suggesting the price may have room to catch up. The stock has been acting stronger than many peers. If the market stays friendly, buying small dips over the next 0-3 months could work, but Brazil's economy and currency add risk.
Primary drivers
- Stronger buying interest and a positive mood among investors lately
- Price trend looks firm; consider buying small dips during strength
- Earnings rose 26% over five years while the share price fell 62%
- Brazil's economy and currency swings could help or hurt results
How it played out
XP: the target was not reached
Lyra published XP at $19.44 on 2025-11-11 with a short-term view through 2026-02-09. The thesis expected 22% growth and pointed to stronger buying interest, a firm price trend, earnings growth of 26% over five years despite a 62% share-price fall, and Brazil's economy and currency swings as risks.
Inside the window, XP rose but stayed below the target. The stock peaked at $20.98 on 2026-01-28, a 7.9% gain. It never got there. XP ended the window at $20.48, above the publication price but short of the published target, so the thesis only partially played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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