Track record · closed signal

XP Inc. (XP) — closed signal from November 11, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 9, 2026 — +5.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

XP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$18.62 – $19.41Entry zone — fair-value band

$19.44Published — price the day we called it

$23.49Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$20.98Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$20.48Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 36% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+5.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+7.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$20.48

last close inside the window, ended February 9, 2026

Peak price

$20.98

peak on January 28, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published November 11, 2025

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$23.49

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$18.62 – $19.41

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$19.44

published November 11, 2025

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

XP's stock has been climbing steadily with strong interest from buyers. Past research showed earnings per share grew 26% each year over five years even while the share price dropped 62%, suggesting the price may have room to catch up. The stock has been acting stronger than many peers. If the market stays friendly, buying small dips over the next 0-3 months could work, but Brazil's economy and currency add risk.

Primary drivers

Stronger buying interest and a positive mood among investors lately
Price trend looks firm; consider buying small dips during strength
Earnings rose 26% over five years while the share price fell 62%
Brazil's economy and currency swings could help or hurt results

How it played out

XP: the target was not reached

Lyra published XP at $19.44 on 2025-11-11 with a short-term view through 2026-02-09. The thesis expected 22% growth and pointed to stronger buying interest, a firm price trend, earnings growth of 26% over five years despite a 62% share-price fall, and Brazil's economy and currency swings as risks.

Inside the window, XP rose but stayed below the target. The stock peaked at $20.98 on 2026-01-28, a 7.9% gain. It never got there. XP ended the window at $20.48, above the publication price but short of the published target, so the thesis only partially played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All XP signals