Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from November 11, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 9, 2026 — +21.7% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 65 days.
The thesis — published November 11, 2025
TSMC makes advanced chips for AI. Investor interest is very high, and the price looks beaten down, so the $288-294 range looks reasonable for buying gradually. October sales rose 16.9% versus last year, though growth slowed. The recent bounce in chip stocks shows investors refocusing on AI demand. Short-term signals are mixed, but a move back to recent highs in the next 0-3 months is possible. Geopolitical risks remain.
Primary drivers
- Leader in making top-tier chips for AI, a fast-growing market.
- Very strong investor interest while the stock looks beaten down.
- Recent bounce in chip stocks shows investors warming to the group.
- October sales rose 16.9% vs last year, though growth cooled.
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 65 days
Lyra published TSM at $291.99 on 2025-11-11 for a short-term window through 2026-02-09. The thesis expected 20% growth. It pointed to TSMC's role in chips for artificial intelligence, high investor interest while the stock looked beaten down, a recent bounce in chip stocks, and October sales that rose 16.9% versus last year.
Inside the window, the stock reached the $349.45 target in 65 days. It peaked at $359.59 on 2026-02-09, a 23.2% gain, and ended at $355.41. The published thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
Share this receipt
A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.
Read the next call before it closes.
This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.