Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from November 11, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 9, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 65 days.
The thesis — published November 11, 2025
TSMC makes advanced chips for AI. Investor interest is very high, and the price looks beaten down, so the $288-294 range looks reasonable for buying gradually. October sales rose 16.9% versus last year, though growth slowed. The recent bounce in chip stocks shows investors refocusing on AI demand. Short-term signals are mixed, but a move back to recent highs in the next 0-3 months is possible. Geopolitical risks remain.
Primary drivers
- Leader in making top-tier chips for AI, a fast-growing market.
- Very strong investor interest while the stock looks beaten down.
- Recent bounce in chip stocks shows investors warming to the group.
- October sales rose 16.9% vs last year, though growth cooled.
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 65 days
Lyra published TSM at $291.99 on 2025-11-11 for a short-term window through 2026-02-09. The thesis expected 20% growth. It pointed to TSMC's role in chips for artificial intelligence, high investor interest while the stock looked beaten down, a recent bounce in chip stocks, and October sales that rose 16.9% versus last year.
Inside the window, the stock reached the $349.45 target in 65 days. It peaked at $359.59 on 2026-02-09, a 23.2% gain, and ended at $355.41. The published thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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