Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from November 10, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 8, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.
The thesis — published November 10, 2025
TSMC's stock has dropped more than its strong business deserves, which can set up a bounce. A fresh deal shows GlobalFoundries will use TSMC's GaN power tech, proving TSMC can earn not only from cutting-edge chips but also from licensing its know-how. While some chart signals look soft, buying in small steps near the price range can help. As investors rotate back to quality, money could return over the next 3 months.
Primary drivers
- Price fell hard recently, leaving room for a healthy potential rebound
- Strong sales, profits, and cash provide support for lasting business value
- GaN power technology licensed out, proving useful and bringing extra income
- As investors shift back to quality leaders, the stock could recover
How it played out
TSM: strong rise, but the target was not reached
Lyra published TSM at 295.53 on 2025-11-10 with expected growth of 22%. The thesis pointed to a recent hard fall, strong sales, profits, and cash, a GaN power technology license, and a possible return of money to quality leaders over the next 3 months.
Inside the window, the stock rose to 351.33 on 2026-01-15, a peak gain of 18.9%. That stayed below the 359.57 target. It ended at 348.85 on 2026-02-08. The thesis largely played out on direction and rebound, but it missed the published target.
What happened during the window
On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported fourth-quarter revenue of 33.73 billion and said net income reached about 16.012 billion. On the same date, the company said it planned 2026 capital expenditure of 52 billion to 56 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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