Track record · closed signal

Alcoa Corporation (AA) — closed signal from November 10, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 8, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$38.94 Published $49.06 Target $59.16 Window close $66.95 Peak
$38.15 – $39.35Entry zone — fair-value band
$38.94Published — price the day we called it
$49.06Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$66.95Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$59.16Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 39 days.

Peak price
$66.95
peak on January 14, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+71.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$59.16
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
39
Window
November 10, 2025 – February 8, 2026

The thesis — published November 10, 2025

Predicted growth
+26%
over the measurement window
Target price
$49.06
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$38.15 – $39.35
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$38.94
published November 10, 2025
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Near-term upside looks possible because investors are upbeat and the recent average price looks supportive. Q3 profit jumped 158 percent, and the company is moving ahead with cleaner smelting (ELYSIS) for consumer packaging. It is also investing in renewable power and gallium. Aluminum prices still swing, but better execution and these green moves could draw automatic buying from investment funds. Aim for a 3-month rebound by buying dips.

Primary drivers

  • Q3 profits soared, signaling stronger operations and better cost control
  • Cleaner ELYSIS smelting could win customers seeking low-carbon packaging
  • Positive mood and recent average price trend are helping near-term action
  • If the economy improves, aluminum demand can lift results in a rebound

How it played out

AA: target reached in 39 days

Lyra published AA at $38.94 on 2025-11-10 for a short-term window ending 2026-02-08. The thesis expected 26 percent growth to $49.06. It pointed to Q3 profit up 158 percent, cleaner ELYSIS smelting for low-carbon packaging, renewable power and gallium investment, positive mood, and recent average-price support.

Inside the window, AA reached the target in 39 days. The peak was $66.95 on 2026-01-14, a 71.9 percent gain. The stock ended the window at $59.16, still above the target. The thesis played out, and the move went beyond what Lyra had published.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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