Track record · closed signal

AppLovin Corporation (APP) — closed signal from November 10, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 8, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

APP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$671.42 Published $872.84 Target $406.72 Window close $738.01 Peak
$658.00 – $678.15Entry zone — fair-value band
$671.42Published — price the day we called it
$872.84Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$738.01Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$406.72Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 33% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$738.01
peak on December 22, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+9.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$406.72
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 10, 2025 – February 8, 2026

The thesis — published November 10, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$872.84
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$658.00 – $678.15
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$671.42
published November 10, 2025
Confidence
75%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

AppLovin is getting positive attention and its recent average price trend points up, backed by strong results. Sales rose 68 percent last quarter, and outside ratings are high. Recent trading shows more buyers than usual, but the SEC data review could slow things, so buying in small steps on pullbacks makes sense. If that issue stays limited, growth and margins could help the stock recover over the next 3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Sales grew 68 percent last quarter, showing demand and better execution.
  • Investor interest is high, with more trading than usual backing the move.
  • Price holds near its recent average even as older momentum signals lag.
  • Ongoing SEC review adds risk, so we size positions carefully for now.

How it played out

APP: target missed after a brief rise

Lyra published APP at 671.42 on 2025-11-10, with 30% expected growth and a 872.84 target over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to sales growth of 68 percent last quarter, high investor interest, stronger than usual trading, price holding near its recent average, and an SEC data review as a risk.

Inside the window, APP rose but stayed below the target. It peaked at 738.01 on 2025-12-22, a 9.9% gain. It never got there. By 2026-02-08, it ended at 406.72. The thesis partially played out early, then missed on the final result.

What happened during the window

On January 20, CapitalWatch published claims about AppLovin and shareholder Hao Tang. On January 27, AppLovin sent a cease-and-desist letter calling the claims false. On February 4, CapitalWatch apologized to Tang and retracted specific claims, while keeping broader questions about AppLovin's financial structure.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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