ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) — closed signal from July 13, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 11, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 71 days.
The thesis — published July 13, 2025
ASML owns the only machines that make the most advanced chips, so chip factories can hardly operate without it. Talk of new trade taxes pulled its shares down 5%, and short-term price momentum looks weak. Buying around $790-802 lets investors use this dip before 7/18 results, when the firm is expected to reveal a record order book. Strong mood readings of 98 and an 86% quality score suggest a likely 18% rebound. That makes the current slide look like a temporary wobble rather than a lasting problem.
Primary drivers
- July 18 results should show record orders even with trade worries.
- Very high sentiment and 86% quality score confirm ASML's strong advantage.
- Trade-driven price dip offers a rare chance to buy before long-term rise.
- Spending surge on AI chips means steady demand for ASML's one-of-a-kind gear.
How it played out
ASML: target reached in 71 days
Lyra published ASML at $798.48 on 2025-07-13 with an 18% expected gain. The thesis pointed to ASML's role in advanced chip tools, a trade-driven 5% pullback, weak short-term momentum, expected July 18 results with a record order book, sentiment of 98, an 86% quality score, and spending on artificial intelligence chips.
Inside the window, the stock reached the $938.16 target in 71 days. It later peaked at $1057.12 on 2025-10-06, with a 32.4% peak gain. By 2025-10-11 it ended at $934.53, back below the target. The thesis played out before the window closed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-07-16, ASML reported second-quarter results. MarketWatch reported profit of €2.29 billion, sales of €6.24 billion, and bookings of €5.54 billion. The same report said ASML warned it could not confirm growth for 2026 at that stage.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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