Track record · closed signal

Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) — closed signal from November 5, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 3, 2026 — -3.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MTCH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$31.53 – $32.71Entry zone — fair-value band

$32.68Published — price the day we called it

$40.61Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$34.55Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$31.54Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 23% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-3.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+5.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$31.54

last close inside the window, ended February 3, 2026

Peak price

$34.55

peak on December 8, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published November 5, 2025

Predicted growth

+25%

over the measurement window

Target price

$40.61

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$31.53 – $32.71

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$32.68

published November 5, 2025

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Two analysts see a favorable setup because the stock has fallen a lot recently and buyer interest seems to be picking up. Last quarter was mixed: Tinder sales fell 3% versus last year, while Hinge grew 27%, hinting the business is shifting toward its faster-growing app. The company is testing price changes and product upgrades. A short-term bounce is possible if key user and revenue metrics improve and prices keep firming.

Primary drivers

Recent trading shows the stock fell a lot and buyer interest is rising
Hinge sales rose 27% versus last year, showing strong customer demand
Tinder sales fell 3%, showing older parts of the business still weak
Raising prices and improving apps could increase spending and sales

How it played out

MTCH: target was not reached

Lyra published MTCH on 2025-11-05 at 32.68 with expected growth of 25% and a target of 40.61. The thesis pointed to a stock that had fallen a lot, signs of rising buyer interest, Hinge sales up 27%, Tinder sales down 3%, and possible lift from price changes and app improvements.

Inside the window, MTCH rose to 34.55 on 2025-12-08. That was a 5.7% peak gain, but it stayed below the 40.61 target. The target was never reached. By 2026-02-03, the stock ended at 31.54. The thesis partially played out, then faded.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-28, Match confirmed a cybersecurity incident that affected a limited amount of user data. It said there was no evidence that login credentials, financial information, or private communications were compromised.

Dating apps Bumble and Match reportedly hit in cyberattack - user data potentially stolen, here's what we know

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All MTCH signals