Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TSM) — closed signal from November 5, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 3, 2026 — +13.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$295.00 Published $353.05 Target $335.75 Window close $351.33 Peak
$287.45 – $295.40Entry zone — fair-value band
$295.00Published — price the day we called it
$353.05Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$351.33Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$335.75Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 96% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
+13.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+19.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$335.75
last close inside the window, ended February 3, 2026
Peak price
$351.33
peak on January 15, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published November 5, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$353.05
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$287.45 – $295.40
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$295.00
published November 5, 2025
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC dropped with the rest of chip stocks this week, wiping out about $500B across the group. That slide looks overdone for a high-quality leader that makes the most advanced chips for AI and high-performance computing. With strong business basics and upbeat investor interest, the price could move back toward its recent range next quarter as fear cools and trading steadies, offering an against-the-crowd entry.

Primary drivers

  • Very oversold reading suggests a careful, against-the-crowd entry point
  • Leads in building tiny, fast chips used in AI and high-performance computing
  • Chip stocks fell worldwide this week, resetting prices to more affordable levels
  • Strong sales, profits, and cash strength could help the share price recover

How it played out

TSM: peak stayed below the target

Lyra published TSM at $295 on 2025-11-05 with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to an oversold reading after a chip-stock selloff, TSMC's role in advanced chips for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, strong sales, profits, and cash strength, and a possible recovery as fear cooled.

Inside the window, the stock rose to $351.33 on 2026-01-15, a 19.1% peak gain. That stayed below the $353.05 target, so it never got there. It ended at $335.75 on 2026-02-03. The thesis mostly played out, but it missed the stated target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported fourth-quarter revenue of $33.73 billion and earnings of $3.14 per U.S. share. The same report said TSMC expected first-quarter revenue of $34.6 billion to $35.8 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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