Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TSM) — closed signal from November 5, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 3, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.
The thesis — published November 5, 2025
TSMC dropped with the rest of chip stocks this week, wiping out about $500B across the group. That slide looks overdone for a high-quality leader that makes the most advanced chips for AI and high-performance computing. With strong business basics and upbeat investor interest, the price could move back toward its recent range next quarter as fear cools and trading steadies, offering an against-the-crowd entry.
Primary drivers
- Very oversold reading suggests a careful, against-the-crowd entry point
- Leads in building tiny, fast chips used in AI and high-performance computing
- Chip stocks fell worldwide this week, resetting prices to more affordable levels
- Strong sales, profits, and cash strength could help the share price recover
How it played out
TSM: peak stayed below the target
Lyra published TSM at $295 on 2025-11-05 with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to an oversold reading after a chip-stock selloff, TSMC's role in advanced chips for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, strong sales, profits, and cash strength, and a possible recovery as fear cooled.
Inside the window, the stock rose to $351.33 on 2026-01-15, a 19.1% peak gain. That stayed below the $353.05 target, so it never got there. It ended at $335.75 on 2026-02-03. The thesis mostly played out, but it missed the stated target.
What happened during the window
On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported fourth-quarter revenue of $33.73 billion and earnings of $3.14 per U.S. share. The same report said TSMC expected first-quarter revenue of $34.6 billion to $35.8 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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