Track record · closed signal

Chart Industries, Inc. (GTLS) — closed signal from November 4, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 2, 2026 — +4.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GTLS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$195.00 – $200.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$199.20Published — price the day we called it

$243.02Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$207.77Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$207.34Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 20% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+4.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+4.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$207.34

last close inside the window, ended February 2, 2026

Peak price

$207.77

peak on January 21, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published November 4, 2025

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$243.02

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$195.00 – $200.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$199.20

published November 4, 2025

Confidence

64%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock fell sharply after earnings, including a big one-time charge, which often sets up a short-term bounce if the business steadies. A $6.05B backlog of signed orders in LNG and industrial gases gives clearer visibility for future work. If execution stabilizes and profit margins sound healthier, a 0-3 month rebound is possible, though debt levels, day-to-day cash needs, and project risks keep conviction limited.

Primary drivers

Shares dropped hard after weak results, setting up a possible snapback
A $6.05B order book signals steady demand and work lined up for years
Long-term growth trends in LNG and industrial gas markets support sales
A one-time loss may be reversed as worries fade, allowing a relief bounce

How it played out

GTLS: the rebound stayed below target

Lyra published GTLS at $199.20 on 2025-11-04 with 22% expected growth and a $243.02 target. The thesis pointed to a sharp post-earnings drop, a possible snapback, a $6.05B order book in LNG and industrial gases, steadier execution, healthier margins, and a possible relief bounce after a one-time loss. Conviction was limited by debt levels, day-to-day cash needs, and project risks.

Inside the window from 2025-11-04 to 2026-02-02, GTLS rose, but not enough. It peaked at $207.77 on 2026-01-21, a 4.3% gain, and stayed below the $243.02 target. It ended at $207.34. The thesis only partially played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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