Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from November 3, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 1, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$304.60 Published $373.65 Target $330.56 Window close $351.33 Peak
$298.39 – $306.34Entry zone — fair-value band
$304.60Published — price the day we called it
$373.65Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$351.33Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$330.56Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 67% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$351.33
peak on January 15, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+15.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$330.56
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 3, 2025 – February 1, 2026

The thesis — published November 3, 2025

Predicted growth
+23%
over the measurement window
Target price
$373.65
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$298.39 – $306.34
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$304.60
published November 3, 2025
Confidence
75%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC is the go-to factory for the world's chips, so it is set to win more AI work. It makes about 71% of outsourced chips and at least 90% of the most advanced ones. Big orders from Nvidia back up that demand. Trading signs are improving as more buyers step in and the recent average price is rising, so small pullbacks can be chances to buy. Spread purchases over time to handle headlines, industry ups and downs, and geopolitics.

Primary drivers

  • Dominates chip manufacturing with ~71% share and most advanced chips
  • Rising demand for AI chips gives a clearer, steadier outlook for sales
  • Trading momentum is improving as more buyers step in than usual
  • Strong ability to set prices helps keep profits and margins healthy

How it played out

TSM: thesis partially played out, target missed

Lyra published TSM on 2025-11-03 at 304.6. The thesis expected 23% growth and pointed to TSMC's chip manufacturing share, advanced-chip position, demand tied to artificial intelligence chips, improving trading momentum, and pricing power. The target was 373.65.

Inside the window, the stock rose but did not reach the target. It peaked at 351.33 on 2026-01-15, with a 15.3% gain. It never got there. By 2026-02-01, it ended at 330.56. The thesis partially played out because the price moved up, but the published target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-09, TSMC reported 2025 revenue of 3.8 trillion Taiwan dollars, up 31.6%, and said fourth-quarter revenue rose 20.6%. On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported record 2025 net profit of 1.72 trillion Taiwan dollars and gave first-quarter 2026 revenue guidance of 34.6 billion to 35.8 billion dollars.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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