Track record · closed signal

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) — closed signal from November 1, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 30, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVAX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$7.90 – $8.40Entry zone — fair-value band

$8.40Published — price the day we called it

$12.43Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$10.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$8.85Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 45% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$10.20

peak on January 27, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+21.4%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$8.85

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

November 1, 2025 – January 30, 2026

The thesis — published November 1, 2025

Predicted growth

+48%

over the measurement window

Target price

$12.43

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$7.90 – $8.40

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$8.40

published November 1, 2025

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Novavax is trying to turn itself around by partnering with others and selling assets, which could lower costs and bring in cash. A well-known analyst just began coverage with a positive rating and an $18 target. News about a site moving to AstraZeneca supports this shift. The stock looks washed out, so a 1-3 month bounce is possible if the plan stays on track. The big things to watch are funding and the pace of new partnership deals.

Primary drivers

The stock looks beaten down, making a short-term bounce more likely
Shifting to partnerships and selling non-core assets to reduce costs
A major analyst started coverage with a positive view and an $18 goal
Moving a facility to AstraZeneca highlights the new partnership approach

How it played out

NVAX: target missed after a partial bounce

Lyra published NVAX at $8.4 on 2025-11-01 with expected growth of 48% and a target of $12.43. The thesis pointed to a beaten-down stock, a shift toward partnerships and asset sales, a positive analyst view with an $18 goal, and a facility move to AstraZeneca as signs that a 1-3 month bounce was possible.

Inside the window, NVAX rose to a peak of $10.2 on 2026-01-27, a 21.4% gain. It stayed below the $12.43 target and never reached it. The stock ended at $8.85 on 2026-01-30. The thesis partially played out, but the full target missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVAX signals