Track record · closed signal

AppLovin Corporation (APP) — closed signal from November 1, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 30, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

APP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$637.33 Published $828.53 Target $473.11 Window close $738.01 Peak
$620.00 – $635.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$637.33Published — price the day we called it
$828.53Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$738.01Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$473.11Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 53% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$738.01
peak on December 22, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+15.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$473.11
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 1, 2025 – January 30, 2026

The thesis — published November 1, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$828.53
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$620.00 – $635.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$637.33
published November 1, 2025
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

AppLovin is a leader in its space, and buying interest looks strong. The recent average price is climbing, and ad-tech mood improved after Amazon showed better cloud growth, lifting confidence in software. Versus many fast movers, its finances look steadier. Plan is to buy small dips over the next 1-3 months and manage risk tightly. Its better tools and data help advertisers get more sales from each dollar spent.

Primary drivers

  • Buying interest looks strong, and the recent average price is rising
  • Ad-tech mood improved after Amazon reported stronger cloud growth
  • High daily trading volume helps investors enter and exit with ease
  • Company finances appear steadier and higher quality than many rivals

How it played out

APP: thesis rose partway, then missed the target

Lyra published APP at $637.33 on 2025-11-01 with a short-term thesis for 30% growth. The thesis pointed to strong buying interest, a rising recent average price, improved ad-tech mood after Amazon reported stronger cloud growth, high daily trading volume, steadier finances than many rivals, and better tools and data for advertisers.

Inside the window from 2025-11-01 to 2026-01-30, APP rose to $738.01 on 2025-12-22, a 15.8% peak gain. It stayed below the $828.53 target. The signal ended at $473.11. The thesis partially played out on the early move, but it missed the full target and finished below the publication price.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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