Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) — closed signal from October 31, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 29, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.
The thesis — published October 31, 2025
TSMC looks strong because it builds the tiny chips top tech firms need, and the push to expand AI data centers points to steady orders. Major companies plan heavy spending, which supports demand. Short-term trading can be bumpy, so buying dips is reasonable. Over the next few months, TSMC's lead in cutting-edge chip making should help, while trade and economic risks argue for sensible position sizing.
Primary drivers
- Clear lead in making the most advanced chips many top customers rely on.
- Big AI data center spending should keep chip orders steady for multiple years.
- Short-term price action is mixed, so near-term movement may stay uneven.
- Watching global economy and trade tensions that could slow orders or margins.
How it played out
TSM: rose 15.4% but never reached target
Lyra published TSM on 2025-10-31 at 304.43 for a short-term window through 2026-01-29. The thesis expected 18% growth and pointed to TSMC's lead in advanced chip making, steady orders tied to artificial intelligence data center spending, uneven short-term trading, and global economy and trade risks.
Inside the window, TSM rose to a 351.33 peak on 2026-01-15, a 15.4% gain. It stayed below the 358.26 target and never reached it. By 2026-01-29, it ended at 339.55. The thesis partially played out, with a strong move that still missed the target.
What happened during the window
On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $33.73 billion and net income of about $16.012 billion. The same day, Axios reported that TSMC accelerated the timeline for its second Phoenix fabrication plant to next year instead of 2028.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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