Track record · closed signal

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) — closed signal from October 31, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 29, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSLA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$447.48 Published $559.35 Target $416.56 Window close $498.83 Peak
$440.00 – $450.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$447.48Published — price the day we called it
$559.35Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$498.83Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$416.56Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 46% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$498.83
peak on December 22, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+11.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$416.56
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 31, 2025 – January 29, 2026

The thesis — published October 31, 2025

Predicted growth
+25%
over the measurement window
Target price
$559.35
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$440.00 – $450.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$447.48
published October 31, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Tesla's price has dropped a lot, but investor mood is improving, so a short-term bounce is possible. Recent news about Cybercab and a path to a cheaper, mass-market car supports that story. The trend is still weak, so we would start small and only add if the move gains strength. In the next 0-3 months a quick upswing could happen, but macro, pricing, and execution risks argue for keeping losses small.

Primary drivers

  • Price fell a lot while mood is upbeat, which can set up a short-term rebound
  • Talk of self-driving and robotics keeps long-term interest in the stock
  • New headlines and stronger demand could flip the near-term trend upward
  • Large price swings call for smaller positions and strict risk control

How it played out

TSLA: target was not reached

Lyra published TSLA at 447.48 on 2025-10-31 with a short-term thesis for 25% growth. The thesis pointed to a sharp prior drop, improving investor mood, self-driving and robotics interest, Cybercab headlines, possible stronger demand, and the need for smaller positions because the trend was still weak.

Inside the window, TSLA rose but did not reach 559.35. It peaked at 498.83 on 2025-12-22, a 11.5% gain. By 2026-01-29, it ended at 416.56. The bounce partly played out, but the published target missed. It never got there.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-28, Tesla reported fourth-quarter revenue of $24.9 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $0.50. The same report said Tesla planned production ramps for the Tesla Semi and Cybercab in 1H26.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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