Track record · closed signal

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) — closed signal from October 31, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 29, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMZN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$247.66 Published $292.24 Target $241.73 Window close $258.60 Peak
$245.00 – $250.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$247.66Published — price the day we called it
$292.24Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$258.60Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$241.73Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 24% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$258.60
peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+4.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$241.73
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 31, 2025 – January 29, 2026

The thesis — published October 31, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$292.24
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$245.00 – $250.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$247.66
published October 31, 2025
Confidence
63%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

After earnings, Amazon looks stronger. AWS (its cloud unit) grew revenue 20% compared to last year, and lots more people are buying the stock than usual. News highlighted a 10% jump and a better outlook for the cloud, which could extend interest over the next 0-3 months as AI demand builds. Expect some back-and-forth; buy small dips and add if gains continue, while keeping losses small if excitement cools.

Primary drivers

  • Amazon's AWS cloud business is speeding up again after a slower stretch
  • Shares are trending well after earnings, with interest likely to carry on
  • Trading activity is much heavier than usual, meaning more buyers stepping in
  • Growing demand from AI projects should lift cloud usage and related profits

How it played out

AMZN: target was not reached

Lyra published AMZN at $247.66 on 2025-10-31 with an 18% expected gain and a $292.24 target. The thesis pointed to AWS revenue growth of 20% compared to last year, stronger trading after earnings, heavier trading activity, and cloud demand tied to artificial intelligence projects.

Inside the window, AMZN peaked at $258.60 on 2025-11-03, a 4.4% gain. That stayed below the $292.24 target. It never got there. The window ended on 2026-01-29 at $241.73. The thesis partly played out early, but it missed the target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-03, OpenAI announced a 7-year, $38 billion cloud computing agreement with Amazon Web Services. On 2025-11-24, Amazon said it would invest $50 billion to expand artificial intelligence and high-performance computing infrastructure for U.S. government cloud customers.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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