Track record · closed signal

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) — closed signal from October 31, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 29, 2026 — -2.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMZN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$245.00 – $250.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$247.66Published — price the day we called it

$292.24Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$258.60Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$241.73Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 24% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-2.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+4.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$241.73

last close inside the window, ended January 29, 2026

Peak price

$258.60

peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published October 31, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$292.24

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$245.00 – $250.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$247.66

published October 31, 2025

Confidence

63%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

After earnings, Amazon looks stronger. AWS (its cloud unit) grew revenue 20% compared to last year, and lots more people are buying the stock than usual. News highlighted a 10% jump and a better outlook for the cloud, which could extend interest over the next 0-3 months as AI demand builds. Expect some back-and-forth; buy small dips and add if gains continue, while keeping losses small if excitement cools.

Primary drivers

Amazon's AWS cloud business is speeding up again after a slower stretch
Shares are trending well after earnings, with interest likely to carry on
Trading activity is much heavier than usual, meaning more buyers stepping in
Growing demand from AI projects should lift cloud usage and related profits

How it played out

AMZN: target was not reached

Lyra published AMZN at $247.66 on 2025-10-31 with an 18% expected gain and a $292.24 target. The thesis pointed to AWS revenue growth of 20% compared to last year, stronger trading after earnings, heavier trading activity, and cloud demand tied to artificial intelligence projects.

Inside the window, AMZN peaked at $258.60 on 2025-11-03, a 4.4% gain. That stayed below the $292.24 target. It never got there. The window ended on 2026-01-29 at $241.73. The thesis partly played out early, but it missed the target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-03, OpenAI announced a 7-year, $38 billion cloud computing agreement with Amazon Web Services. On 2025-11-24, Amazon said it would invest $50 billion to expand artificial intelligence and high-performance computing infrastructure for U.S. government cloud customers.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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