Track record · closed signal

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) — closed signal from October 30, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 28, 2026 — -2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

JPM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$302.27 – $307.22Entry zone — fair-value band

$307.01Published — price the day we called it

$339.25Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$335.87Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$300.77Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 85% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

-2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+9.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$300.77

last close inside the window, ended January 28, 2026

Peak price

$335.87

peak on January 6, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published October 30, 2025

Predicted growth

+11%

over the measurement window

Target price

$339.25

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$302.27 – $307.22

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$307.01

published October 30, 2025

Confidence

62%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

JPM is a well-known bank with steady strength. The company plans to launch a digital bank in Germany by 2026, opening a new market. Many large investors own the stock, which can help keep demand steady. Recent trading shows lots more people are buying than usual. We expect a calm 1-3 month climb if the overall bank group stays firm. Keep an eye on price vs. value and big-picture economic shocks. Sector news and interest rates may guide the next steps.

Primary drivers

Big, trusted bank with size advantages that lower costs and widen reach.
Plan to launch a digital bank in Germany by 2026, opening new customers.
Recent trading shows stronger buying interest than usual, lifting sentiment.
Many large funds own shares, which can add steady demand and stability.

How it played out

JPM: thesis rose but target was not reached

Lyra published JPM at 307.01 on 2025-10-30 with an 11% expected gain and a 339.25 target. The thesis pointed to JPMorgan Chase's size advantages, its plan to launch a digital bank in Germany by 2026, stronger buying interest than usual, and ownership by many large funds.

Inside the window, JPM rose to 335.87 on 2026-01-06, a 9.4% peak gain. It stayed below the 339.25 target. By 2026-01-28, it ended at 300.77. The thesis partly played out because the stock climbed close to the target, but it never got there.

What happened during the window

On 2025-12-15, Business Insider reported that JPMorgan's asset management arm planned to launch My OnChain Net Yield Fund on 2025-12-16. On 2026-01-13, AP reported that JPMorgan Chase earned 13.03 billion in the fourth quarter and added 2.2 billion in loan-loss reserves tied to the Apple Card portfolio.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All JPM signals