Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) — closed signal from July 12, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 10, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 48 days.
The thesis — published July 12, 2025
Alibaba's shares look cheap at just 9 times expected yearly profit before certain costs, and some experts say the stock could climb about 70 %, helped by a forecast 23 % jump in cloud sales. Even so, the recent price trend is still sliding and investors fear fresh government crackdowns. Unless the price begins setting clearly higher levels and policy worries fade, the shares may not be a good pick for the next three months, so patience is advised.
Primary drivers
- Experts see up to 70 % price rise, driven by cloud services and quick-delivery shopping.
- Stock is cheap at 9 times profit measure, but that discount signals worries about rules.
- Recent price signals show buyers still cautious, even with plenty of good headlines.
- Optimism readings are high, yet price lags; need proof of strength before investing.
How it played out
BABA: target reached in 48 days
Lyra published BABA at 106.72 on 2025-07-12 with 20% expected growth and a 128.06 target. The thesis pointed to a cheap valuation at 9 times expected yearly profit before certain costs, expert upside views of 70%, cloud sales growth of 23%, quick-delivery shopping, and the need for stronger price proof while policy worries remained.
Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 48 days. It later peaked at 192.67 on 2025-10-02, with an 80.5% gain. It ended the window at 159.01. The thesis played out, and the move went beyond the target.
What happened during the window
On August 29, 2025, Alibaba reported June-quarter results. Investors.com reported 247.65 billion yuan in sales and 33.3 billion yuan in Cloud Intelligence revenue. On September 24, 2025, Tom's Hardware reported that Alibaba announced a Nvidia partnership and data center expansion plans at its Apsara Conference.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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