Track record · closed signal

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK) — closed signal from October 30, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 28, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

STOK price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$31.88 Published $41.44 Target $29.40 Window close $37.34 Peak
$29.50 – $32.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$31.88Published — price the day we called it
$41.44Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$37.34Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$29.40Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 57% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$37.34
peak on January 7, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+17.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$29.40
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 30, 2025 – January 28, 2026

The thesis — published October 30, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$41.44
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$29.50 – $32.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$31.88
published October 30, 2025
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Investors are positive because news shows Stoke's drug zorevunersen helped people with Dravet over 2-3 years, with clearer thinking and behavior. An analyst kept a Buy rating and a $35 price target. The recent price looks washed out, which can create chances. In the next 1-3 months, shares could be valued closer to past levels, but big swings and funding needs are risks. Plan size and timing carefully.

Primary drivers

  • Strong 2-3 year Dravet results show meaningful brain and behavior gains
  • A major analyst rates it Buy and sets a $35 target price for shares
  • Price looks beaten down, offering a potentially attractive entry now
  • Optimistic mood could lift the stock closer to past valuation levels

How it played out

STOK: thesis partially played out

Lyra published STOK at 31.88 on 2025-10-30. The thesis expected 30% growth and a target of 41.44. It pointed to 2-3 year Dravet data for zorevunersen, a Buy rating with a $35 target, a washed-out price, and the chance that sentiment could move shares closer to past valuation levels.

Inside the window, STOK rose, but it did not reach the target. The peak was 37.34 on 2026-01-07, a 17.1% gain. It never got there. By 2026-01-28, the stock ended at 29.40. The thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On Dec. 16, 2025, Investors.com reported that Stoke had released third-quarter results on Nov. 4, with revenue of $10.6 million and a loss of $0.65 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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