Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (ADR) (TSM) — closed signal from October 30, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 28, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 77 days.
The thesis — published October 30, 2025
TSMC is a key supplier for AI chips, so rising tech spending should keep its factories busy. Alphabet plans to lift 2025 investment to $91B-$93B, which points to steady orders for the most advanced chips. Some short-term price signs look soft, but overall tone remains positive. We prefer buying pullbacks for a 1-3 month move toward prior highs, while staying alert to export rules and any supply or geopolitical issues.
Primary drivers
- Rising AI budgets suggest steady demand for TSMC's most advanced chip making
- Price action looks healthy overall despite some softer short-term signals
- Alphabet's higher 2025 spending gives clearer visibility into future chip orders
- Watching Taiwan and export rules that could impact orders, timing, and costs
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 77 days
Lyra published TSM at 302.99 on 2025-10-30 with a short-term view for 14% expected growth. The thesis pointed to rising artificial intelligence budgets, steady demand for TSMC's most advanced chip making, Alphabet's higher 2025 spending, healthy overall price action, and risks around Taiwan and export rules.
Inside the window, the stock reached the 344.48 target in 77 days. It peaked at 351.33 on 2026-01-15, with a 16% gain. By 2026-01-28, it ended at 342.30. The thesis played out. The target was reached, though the closing price was below the target.
What happened during the window
On Dec. 29, 2025, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC had started volume production of 2nm-class N2 chips in Q4 2025. On Jan. 15, 2026, Business Insider reported that TSMC's fourth-quarter profit rose 35% and revenue rose 20%, and that the company cited demand for leading-edge process technologies.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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