Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) — closed signal from October 29, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 27, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.
The thesis — published October 29, 2025
TSMC is the key factory for advanced AI chips. Sales and profits are strong, and interest in the stock is improving. A few big investors trimmed small positions, but NVDA's $5T moment and new U.S. wins point to steady orders flowing to TSMC. Over the next 0-3 months, high-speed memory (HBM) and newer chip lines could lift results. Lots more people are buying than usual, though short-term signals are mixed. Consider buying near $300-$306.
Primary drivers
- Leads the industry in making advanced AI chips for top customers
- NVDA's big wins suggest steady orders flowing down to TSMC
- Buying interest looks stronger than usual in recent trading
- Stronger sales, margins, and reliability compared with many rivals
How it played out
TSM: thesis rose but target was not reached
Lyra published TSM at $304.25 on 2025-10-29 for a short-term window ending 2026-01-27. The thesis expected 18% growth and pointed to advanced chip manufacturing for artificial intelligence customers, steady orders tied to NVDA, stronger buying interest, and stronger sales, margins, and reliability than many rivals.
Inside the window, TSM rose to a peak of $351.33 on 2026-01-15, a 15.5% gain. That stayed below the $358.05 target, so the target was never reached. The stock ended the window at $338.34. The thesis partly played out, but it missed its stated target.
What happened during the window
On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported record 2025 results and fourth-quarter profit growth. The company also gave a first-quarter 2026 sales outlook in the same report. These were reported during the measurement window, but they were not treated here as the cause of the stock move.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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