Track record · closed signal

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) — closed signal from October 28, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 26, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSLA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$459.18 Published $560.20 Target $435.20 Window close $498.83 Peak
$450.00 – $465.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$459.18Published — price the day we called it
$560.20Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$498.83Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$435.20Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 39% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$498.83
peak on December 22, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+8.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$435.20
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 28, 2025 – January 26, 2026

The thesis — published October 28, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$560.20
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$450.00 – $465.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$459.18
published October 28, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Tesla's share price is being driven mostly by excitement about AI and self-driving. Even though recent headlines show weaker sales in Europe, the stock is still climbing, suggesting lots more people are buying than usual. The price has been trending above its recent average price, which often helps. If you buy, consider buying on dips and add only if the price moves above nearby levels, while watching rules and pricing changes.

Primary drivers

  • Strong recent price trend staying above its recent average price
  • Share price holding up even while sales in Europe have weakened lately
  • Ongoing excitement about AI and self-driving keeps investor interest high
  • Price already bakes in big expectations; delivering on ambitious plans is hard

How it played out

TSLA: target was not reached

Lyra published TSLA on 2025-10-28 at 459.18 with expected growth of 22%. The thesis pointed to a strong recent price trend, the stock holding up despite weaker Europe sales, and investor interest in artificial intelligence and self-driving. It also noted that the price already carried big expectations.

Inside the window, TSLA rose to 498.83 on 2025-12-22, a peak gain of 8.6%. That stayed below the 560.20 target, so the target was never reached. By the end of the window, the stock was 435.20. The thesis partially played out on direction at the peak, but missed the full target.

What happened during the window

On November 6, 2025, Tesla shareholders approved Elon Musk's compensation package at the annual meeting. On January 2, 2026, Tesla reported Q4 vehicle deliveries of 418,227 and full-year deliveries of 1.64 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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