Track record · closed signal

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) — closed signal from October 28, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 26, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BABA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$177.97 Published $210.00 Target $171.37 Window close $182.50 Peak
$173.00 – $179.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$177.97Published — price the day we called it
$210.00Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$182.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$171.37Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 14% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$182.50
peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+2.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$171.37
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 28, 2025 – January 26, 2026

The thesis — published October 28, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$210.00
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$173.00 – $179.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$177.97
published October 28, 2025
Confidence
62%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alibaba could bounce because many investors are more positive and big funds are showing interest. Ark Invest bought shares, and the new Quark AI Glasses add a fresh product story that could draw attention. If the overall market stays healthy, the stock could be revalued. Risks from profits and rules in China remain, so we prefer buying on dips and waiting for a clear turn in price momentum.

Primary drivers

  • Strong mood around the stock with a buy-the-dip plan in mind
  • New Quark AI Glasses may boost interest in Alibaba's devices
  • More attention from large investment funds is starting to show
  • Regulatory worries in China mean position size should stay modest

How it played out

BABA: target was not reached

Lyra published BABA at 177.97 on 2025-10-28, with an 18% expected gain over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to stronger investor mood, a buy-the-dip setup, Quark artificial intelligence glasses, more attention from large funds, and China regulatory risk as a reason to keep position size modest.

The stock rose quickly but not far enough. It peaked at 182.50 on 2025-10-29, a 2.5% gain, while the target was 210. It never got there. By 2026-01-26, BABA ended at 171.37. The thesis partially played out on the early bounce, but missed the target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-26, Business Insider reported Alibaba's quarter ending September 30 revenue at 247.8 billion yuan, up 5%, while net income fell 53% to 20.6 billion yuan. The same report said the cloud division grew 34% to 39.8 billion yuan.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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